Models are developed for a given therapeutic area based on the addressable patient population. This allows for detailed assessment of a compound’s real or potential competitive landscape. Epidemiological considerations include estimates of disease incidence, prevalence, growth rates, and death rates. Models are developed separately for the U.S., Europe, and Japan.
Drug revenue models look seven years into the future and three years into the past.
Device revenue models project three to five years forward and three years back.
For developmental agents, the revenue forecast assumes the drug or device is approved. Risk adjusted valuations can be developed by multiplying the revenue potential—if approved—by the probability of approval as assessed by the inThought Approvability Index.